AI progress continues at full speed, even though many people think, with an uncannily high level of confidence, that there is around a 10% chance it will kill us all. That it will wipe out humanity, the only intelligence in the universe we know of. Why do we take that risk? Because of growth, because of capital gains for investors and founders, for the few people who get to reap the windfall. Some say we race because of the many benefits: diseases to be cured, abundance to be had. That may be so, but are the risks in balance with the benefits? ...
Two Euros, Two Pockets
A euro earned by owning and a euro earned by working get very different tax bills. A well-paid professional in a European city works and saves diligently, and after a year lands at some increase in savings. In the same year a regular-size flat in that same city appreciates by more than the professional earned. The person holding the flat did nothing in particular. The person working did everything asked of them. Why is there such a gap? Is that in any way reasonable? And if not what could we do about it? ...
The Number We Chose
GDP diverged from life a long time ago and the gap keeps compounding. Can we count better? The value of an artillery shell fired in a war counts the same as a bridge that will stand for eighty years or more. A washing machine that dies after a mere thirty months of modest use counts for twice as much as one that lasts sixty. Wikipedia counts for nothing. GDP measures market output and it measures it well. The problem is that we do too much with it. We made it the target, we optimised for it for eighty years, and somewhere along the way stopped asking what else was moving. Let’s talk about that. ...
The Harvested Hour: What We Optimize For, and What It Costs Us
There is a room in my flat with more toys than my two boys could meaningfully play with in a year. They are not spoiled by any usual standards - this is what childhood in a developed country looks like. The toys mostly sit there. The scarce ingredient of their play was never the toy. It was attention, the unhurried hour, the absence of stimulus, to be bored long enough for imagination to kick in. Many adults I know live in a scaled-up version of the same room - closets full of gear, gadgets, subscriptions. We own more than we can attend to. ...